Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr betting on himself is a huge gamble.

WhenVladimir Guerrero Jr. rejected the Toronto Blue Jays' final attempt at locking him up to a long-term contract extension, he cemented himself atop the list of players with plenty to gain (or lose) not just this spring but the entire forthcoming year.

The recent history of players turning down nine-figure deals includes smashing successes and face-palming failures.

Players like Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani have bet on themselves and it paid off in the form of record breaking contracts. The theme with these two players is maturity consistency, versatility, playoff experience, and they're World Series Champions.

After winning the World Series in 2019 Juan Soto rejected a $440 million contract extension from the Washington Nationals and wound up with $819 million between the San Diego Padres, New York Yankees and now the New York Mets. ($54 million over what would have been the first two years of the extension and $765 million on top of that from the Mets).

Aaron Judge bet on himself when he said no thanks to $217 million offer from the Yankees, then broke the American league homerun record (62) which set himself up for success going into free agency.

Judge hit the free agent market putting a big scare into the Yankee faithful when the San Diego Padres offered him a $415 million deal, but Judge being loyal to his team and fanbase went back to the Bronx on a $379 million deal.

He left $36 million on the table out of pure loyalty. While I loathe the New York Yankees and dislike most of their fanbase I have nothing but love and respect for Aaron Judge on the way the man handles himself on and off the field.

I'm not going to delve into Ohtani betting on himself much because the man is a two-way unicorn. One of a kind, right now anyway.

Ohtani is a mature, quiet clubhouse leader, who leads by example and shows wisdom beyond his years on and off the field.

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has been one of the faces of the franchise since his electrifying debut.

Alonso led the majors with 53 home runs en route to a runaway Rookie of the Year win in 2019.

That still stands as the all-time rookie home run record.

Alonso connected on 16 longballs in the shortened follow-up season and has topped 30 homers in each of the last four years. He is also a two-time home run derby champion.

That's a testament not only to his massive power but to his exceptional availability.

Alonso has played at least 152 games in each of his five full seasons. He appeared in all 162 contests last year.

His only career injured list stint was a minimal stay in 2023 related to a bone bruise in his left wrist.

Over the last six seasons, only Marcus Semien has played in more games. Semien and Freddie Freeman are the only hitters with more plate appearances.

Alonso hit another 46 homers in 2023, though he did so with career-low marks in batting average (.217) and on-base percentage (.318).

However betting on himself didn't work out as planned.

Turning his nose up at a $158 million offer from the New York Mets and several better offers thereafter only to get a deal for about one-third of that illustrates that betting on oneself still constitutes a BIG gamble.

Another good example of this is recently acquired New York Yankee 1B/CF Cody Bellinger.

Bellinger is a former rookie of the year, two-time All- Star, NL MVP, NLCS MVP, All MLB first team centerfielder, gold glove winner, World Series Champion, the list goes on.

In 2021 Bellinger bet on himself with super agent Scott Boras regressed and signed a one-year extension with the Dodgers for $17 million.

In 2022 Bellinger bet on himself again and had a slightly better season he then landed another one-year deal with a mutual option for 2024 with the Chicago Cubs for $17.5 Million.

In 2023, Bellinger declined his mutual option and became a free agent once again betting on himself.

In February of 2024, he re-signed with the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million contract containing opt-out clauses after each of the first two seasons.

Bellinger finished the 2024 season with a .266 average, 18 home runs, and 78 RBIs, and exercised the option on his contract for the 2025 season.

The Cubs in turn traded Bellinger with $5 million in cash considerations to the New York Yankees in exchange for Cody Poteet.

Obviously betting on oneself hasn't worked out the way you would think with the accolades a player like Bellinger has which is why it is a huge gamble.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr has had a down season before so the risk of betting on himself is very high in his case.

So what happens if Guerrero gets injured or has another down year?

While the specifics of the Guerrero offer remain a mystery, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said it would've made Guerrero one of the highest-paid players in MLB.

So whether it's this spring or this September or any day in between, Guerrero is playing to ensure he ends up more like Soto and Judge than like his fellow first baseman Alonso and Bellinger.

Guerrero is coming off a year in which he hit .323 for the Blue Jays with 30 homers and 103 RBI. Just 25 years old, he's already a four-time All-Star and a Silver Slugger.

If the face of the franchise has a career year he will get out of this world offers making him one of the richest players in baseball.

If he doesn't though it may be a long and arduous road ahead for the first baseman.

There is a lot at stake for Guerrero in 2025 and I wish him the best of luck going forward.