Blue Jays Breakout Candidate: Will Wagner

Will Wagner wasn't the centerpiece of the trade that sent YUsei Kikuchi to the Astros last summer.

Rather, he was the tertiary piece in a deal headlined by top prospect Jake Bloss and recently graduated top prospect Joey Loperfido.

Wagner, 26, is the son of long-time closer and now hall of famer Billy Wagner.

The elder Wagner had spent much of his career with the Astros and it was that organization that drafted the younger Wagner, using an 18th-round selection on him in 2021.

In his brief major league debut, he posted a .305 batting average with six doubles and two home runs in just 24 appearances.

Known for his contact hitting, Wagner showed promise with strong xwOBA numbers while working on improving his plate discipline.

Willy Wags made tons of contact, and we're not just talking about weakly-hit grounders and lazy fly balls. His .360 xwOBA was noticeably better than his .342 wOBA.

Half of the balls he put in play came off his bat at over 95 mph, while nearly 40% were in the launch angle sweet spot, according to Baseball Savant.

Expected to be healthy for spring training 2025, Wagner aims to secure a place in the starting lineup amidst competition.

His projections for 2025 suggest a .272/.351/.398 slash line and a 118 wRC+.

The Steamer projection system at FanGraphs is high on Wagner, envisioning a .272/.351/.398 slash line and a 118 wRC+ for him in 2025.

Especially encouraging is his projected 10.2% walk rate. That would have ranked in the 75th percentile last season.

Baseball America ranked him as the no. 412 prospect in the 2020 draft. FanGraphs ranked him as just the 56th-best prospect traded at the deadline last summer. MLB Pipeline currently has him at no. 18 in Toronto's system.

Wagner's performance in the upcoming season may determine if he solidifies a place in the Blue Jays' lineup.

Wagner a natural second baseman, will probably have to play a different infield position or possibly the outfield due to three time gold-glover Andres Gimenez, who is a lock at that postion.

If he hits as well as he did last season the Blue Jays will figure out a way to get him in the lineup.

If successful, he could evolve into a key player for the team and elevate his visibility in the league.

Will Wagner's journey from a low-ranked prospect to an impactful player on the Blue Jays is poised for a pivotal moment in 2025.

By exceeding modest projections, he can establish himself as a valuable everyday player and leverage his family legacy to enhance his career.

A successful season not only meets expectations but could redefine his narrative within baseball.

With the added narrative of his father's Hall of Fame induction, Wagner could capture more media attention as he takes the field this spring.

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