The Blue Jays aren't that far away from being a 90-win team
The Blue Jays may not be that far away from a team that wins 90 games in 2025.
2024 obviously didn't go the way the Blue Jays - or anybody - thought it would. With a 74-88 record, the Jays finishing 14 games under .500 was not on a anybody's bingo card.
And yet, the difference between a 75 win team and a 90 win team isn't as a big of a gap as one thinks. The Blue Jays have the capacity to get there, it's just a matter of numbers. Let's start with the bullpen.
In 2023, the Blue Jays bullpen was essentially a four win team; last year it was -3.5. That's aa 7.5 difference in win differential. The Blue Jays have taken steps to address their biggest roster hole, including signing All-Star closer Jeff Hoffman to a three year deal. OOPSY by FanGraphs now has the Jays ranked as a top 10 bullpen. If the Jays can get back to their 2023 effectiveness, that's 7 extra wins right there.
Next, there is Bo Bichette. Nobody needs a bigger bounce back season than the Blue Jays shortstop. In 2023, Bo had a 4.9 WAR season, In 2024, that number dropped to -0.3, a difference of 5.2. If Bo can find his stroke again, that's another five wins.
Then there is the rotation. Both Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt had down years last year. If they can find success like they did in 2023, particularly Gausman, that's another 3-4 wins for the Blue Jays. All of the sudden, the Blue Jays have 89 wins.
Now of course, things aren't always this simple. Adding a bat and a starter could put them over the hump, but still, they aren't as far away as everybody thinks. It's just a matter of putting it all together.
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