Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. negotiating major contract extension in the $500+ range.
The Toronto Blue Jays are in talks with Vladimir Guerrero Jr about a long-term extension that would buy him out of his final year of arbitration and free agency.
As reported by Ken Rosenthal via The Athletic, the perception within the industry remains that the Blue Jays are desperate to do something big.
Club president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract. General manager Ross Atkins has just two years left. And the team is coming off a season in which it finished last in the AL East and won only 74 games.
Signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr would be a major step toward re-establishing the franchise's credibility.
But in the wake of Juan Soto's record 15-year, $765 million free-agent contract, the price will be steep.
Guerrero is projected to earn almost $30 million in his final year of arbitration and would hit the market entering his age-27 season. That's only one year older than Soto was as a free agent.
Soto is a bigger talent than Guerrero, with a more consistent track record. But Guerrero, too, is an offensive force, leading the majors in OPS+ at 67 percent above league average in 2021 and finishing sixth at 66 percent above in 2024.
In the two years in between, down years by his standards, he was 33 percent and 16 percent above.
Guerrero Jr is going to be 26 years old next season and hits free agency once the season is complete. Last year, he hit .323/.396/.544 (166 OPS+) with 44 doubles, 30 homers, 103 RBI, 98 runs and 6.2 WAR. He finished sixth in MVP voting and has a runner-up finish under his belt as well.
First basemen no longer are paid the way they once were, complicating free agency for the two top players at the position in this year's market, Pete Alonso, 30, and Christian Walker, who turns 34 on March 28. Miguel Cabrera's eight-year, $248 million extension remains the largest contract at first (Bryce Harper signed his 13-year, $330 million free-agent deal as a right fielder). Cabrera's deal extended from his age-33 to age-40 seasons.
Guerrero will be six years younger when his next deal starts.
He is a team leader, an improved defender, a player who was born in Montreal and professes to love Toronto.
And the Soto contract, awarded to an outfielder who is not exactly regarded as a gifted defender, raises the bar for elite hitters.
So, what might Guerrero want?
A $400 million deal would be barely half of Soto's.
A deal in the $500 million to $600 million range, excessive as it might sound to the average fan, probably is more realistic.
Keep in mind, the Jays would need to pay a premium for preventing Guerrero from testing the market.
And if they lose him, their already disgruntled fan base might revolt.
The only answer from this fan is to pay the man. period.
| POLL | ||
DECEMBRE 20 | 357 ANSWERS Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. negotiating major contract extension in the $500+ range. Are the Blue Jays going to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr to an extension before he becomes a free agent? | ||
| Yes | 284 | 79.6 % |
| No | 73 | 20.4 % |
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