Are the Blue Jays really going to do this with Soto after the Ohtani debacle?
The Blue Jays interest is real and they have made an offer in the initial blind bidding, but sources describe them as a dark horse, at best.
Industry-wide, the New York Mets are viewed as favorites and the Yankees are seen as a legitimate option to win the competition about to unfold.
Leaks suggesting that the Blue Jays, Red Sox or Dodgers are 'determined' or 'aggressive' are likely designed to increase pressure on the two New York teams, prompting them to move - a staple in the Boras playbook.
It often works, but it doesn't mean necessarily the non-New York teams can stomach the bidding war.
Juan �Soto's decision will certainly impact the Blue Jays, as they continue to engage with the 26-year-old and his agent, Scott Boras, who also represents Kikuchi, Snell, Burnes and Bregman and many others appears to be holding all the cards in this years free agency frenzy.
The Ohtani mess from a year ago has left a lot of scars and that's understandably triggering a well-founded skepticism around an attempt to pry Soto from both the Yankees, his 2024 team, and the Mets.
On Oct. 2, Shapiro said he didn't see the payroll «either growing or decreasing in a big way,» and indications are that still holds true.
The club believes it finished under the $237-million Competitive Balance Tax threshold last season (MLB is still verifying those numbers), so there's a rough marker for 2024 spending.
So the only way the Blue Jays can�stretch beyond that payroll for a special or unique opportunity is Juan Soto. Soto definitely qualifies and that's how Ohtani would have fit into last season's budget, had he chosen Toronto.
There may also be a few other scenarios in which they could push a little beyond their budget, perhaps something like a Fried and Santander combination.
But worth remembering is just like with Ohtani a year ago, the Blue Jays can't simply reallocate the money they're trying to spend on Soto to other players.
If the Blue Jays did land Soto, they could likely still extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but it stands to reason that a third mega-contract would be highly unlikely.
Ducking under the CBT for 2024 helped reset tax penalties, and lots of money is coming off the books over the next couple seasons, but there's no point in adding Soto if you don't surround him with talent, so signing him would signal a willingness to increase spending to new levels, at least for 2025.�
If Soto signs with another team, the Blue Jays would simply move on to the next possibility on their list, be it Fried, Santander or someone else.
If there's alignment with one of those high-end players, we could see a significant deal.
Ideally, it might be an everyday power-hitting outfielder who bats left-handed plus a front-line starter.
But the off-season is often an exercise in pivoting from ideal outcomes to acceptable ones, and that may well apply to the Blue Jays this winter.
How Blue Jays navigate that challenge will determine whether the next edition of the team can return to the post-season in 2025.
